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Stars approach season finale with must-win mentality

Technically speaking, the Minnesota Stars final game of the season isn’t a must-win. The team faces the league-leading Carolina RailHawks—already crowned as regular champions—holding onto a narrow advantage over the Montreal Impact in the race for the North American Soccer League’s final playoff spot. A win seals the deal for the Stars; a tie or loss makes them dependent on the last-place Atlanta Silverbacks to get a result of some sort against Montreal.

Download: Match Notes and Stats (PDF)  |  Watch: Stars 1-0 Carolina, July 9

Head coach Manny Lagos is leaving nothing to chance as his team prepares to finish the regular season. “Every one of the guys knows what’s at stake and knows that we’re in control of our season right now,” he said.

A win against the RailHawks would put the Stars out of Montreal’s reach. Other scenarios aren’t as kind. Should the teams finish even on points, Montreal’s superior goal difference would propel the Impact into the sixth and final playoff berth at Minnesota’s expense.

The scenario seemed unlikely in early August. The Stars were coming off a 3-1 win at Montreal on August 6 that put them in third place in the NASL with 29 points and 10 games left to play. The Stars then went winless for seven games, including two losses to Montreal. In that seven game stretch, the team struggled with inconsistent play, poor finishing and plain bad luck.

The team finally broke out of its slump in its home finale, topping the Silverbacks 2-0 on September 10, putting in 90 dominating minutes in which Atlanta managed only two shots on goal. The team rediscovered the resiliency that had been its trademark earlier in the season in its following game, last Saturday’s 1-1 draw at third-place FC Tampa Bay. Despite being held without a shot on goal in the first half and outshot on the night, the Stars got a dominant performance from goalkeeper Joe Warren and a timely goal from forward Brian Cvilikas to earn a critical away point.

Now the team faces perhaps the toughest test of any team in the final week of NASL action. Carolina has been planted firmly in first place nearly all season, running well clear of the chasing pack with a 10-game winning streak from April to early July. Since then, the RailHawks’ pace has slowed, thanks largely to struggles away from WakeMed Soccer Park, which has been a virtual fortress in 2011. Carolina is an impressive 11-1-1 in Cary, N.C. and hasn’t lost since a season-opening setback to the Puerto Rico Islanders. The only other dropped points came in a 1-1 draw with the Stars in the midst of their slump.

“I think we match up very well with Carolina in key areas, and there’s a little bit of a chippy history between the clubs that really brings out the competitiveness on both sides,” Lagos said. That history includes a two-legged playoff series last season that Carolina won 4-0 after the Stars went a man down near halftime of the second leg. In the seven games all-time between the teams, the RailHawks have seen four players sent off, further adding to the chippy nature of the matchup.

Of the key areas Lagos referred to, perhaps none will be as important as the Stars defense against Carolina’s high-powered attack. The RailHawks have scored a league-leading 49 goals this season, but the Stars have limited them to only two in three games, one of which came from a penalty kick. In Etienne Barbara and Pablo Campos, Carolina features the NASL’s two leading scorers, who have combined for 31 goals in 2011. Barbara and Carolina midfielder Jonny Steele make up the league’s top two playmakers as well, having combined for 15 assists this season. Tasked with containing them will be the Stars defense, anchored by center backs Cristiano Dias and Kyle Altman, who has played every minute of all but one game for the Stars this season.

Should they book a spot in the playoffs, the Stars would face a road game against either FC Tampa Bay or the Fort Lauderdale Strikers in the one-game opening round on October 1. Carolina and the Puerto Rico Islanders have both secured byes to the two-legged, home and home semifinal series, which kicks off October 8. The league’s championship series takes place October 22 and 29.

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